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There is a method that can be used by a driver to determine the best time to pull a bus. This method consists of three parts:

In 2013, the Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) released its Annual Crime Report on March 5, 2014. The 2016 U.S. Crime Statistics (the 2015 report has not been released yet) will also come out on April 2nd, but for the present, I thought I’d share a recent graph of crime rates since 1990 in the U.S. on Google Data Tools.

Source: Sentencing Commission

The data below shows the 10 crimes associated with the least prison time by year, and some other useful information: crime rate per 100,000 and homicide rate per 100k. The FBI publishes the numbers for the 50 most-populous communities in the U.S. to show the violent crime rate (violent murder rate, rape rate, forcible rape rate, and robbery rate); the population of each population group as a percentage of total people, as reported by the Census Bureau.

Source: Federal Bureau of Prisons

Here’s the graph on homicides from 1990-2013:

Source: Federal Bureau of Prisons

Here’s the graph on robberies from 1990-2013:

Source: Federal Bureau of Prisons and Sentencing Commission

What you want to see is just the arrest rate: if a person’s crime is less prevalent than the arrest rate, then the arrest rate won’t be very important in predicting those rates in the future (though it will help explain which crimes get caught and how long people stay in prison). In the case of robbery, you see the arrest rate being very important in explaining crime rates from 1990-2013:

Source: Federal Bureau of Prisons and Sentencing Commission

I did a little calculation on the arrest rate per 100,000 people to get the arrest rate for all crimes, but that takes too long, so here’s just the arrest rate for each crime as a percentage of the state population:

You will notice that the arrest rate does NOT correspond to the death penalty rate. I think the reason for why is to explain why violent crimes, for example murder, are more common in cities, while property crimes (stealing a car, mugging a shop owner or a mugger, etc.) are less so. Some crimes that cause crime in cities like murder are not very frequent in other cities. If we assume that the murder rate

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