There are generally three possibilities in a horse racing event:
a) The odds are high (say, 6-1, the odds that a horse wins the race).
b) The odds are low (say, 1-2 or 1-3).
c) Nothing is known.
How did you arrive at these odds? Did you take one of the above options and average out the numbers? Are you trying to get something for nothing? These are the kinds of questions that can give you a headache.
It’s simple logic. If you have a large percentage of good odds, like 4-1 for racing a horse that wins, if you can calculate the chances of running it, you can find out the percentage of the horses that will win. All you have to do is the numbers, and the more you put it together, the more you can figure out whether the odds of your horse winning are a high number or a low number.
But, I’ve never seen anyone come away with a 3-year-old that won a race. If a horse has a high percentage of good odds, it is impossible to calculate whether the horse has a high or low chance of winning. When I say a high chance, I mean a high number that is more than 50% or less than 25%. A horse that has a high chance of winning will, naturally, run better than it would if it had a low-chance of winning.
If, however, you are looking a low-chance horse running well, it is impossible to calculate the number of times your good horse will run well. So, as a general rule, you can’t get anything by running a specific breed, but you can get more or less by running a specific type of horses. A high chance means a certain number of times a horse will run well.
Why is it that a racehorse has a high chance of winning? I’ve been asked this many times and I don’t know the answer. One answer is that all races are graded, and in such cases the top three may have a large amount of odds against them. This would apply to most types of races, but not to footraces. This would mean that it is difficult to calculate the numbers for the top three horses of a footrace, and even harder to calculate the numbers for the top horses. And the way I understand it, in a footrace, the top horse will have a small chance of winning.
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