The trendlines and the “hits and misses” chart at this webpage show some swing highs and swing lows. However, they aren’t all of the same size, size does not mean that it is going up or that it is going down. I am not a great trendmaker and am not a statistician, so please don’t take my data as “proving” anything. It’s just some ideas, if you want to believe them, by all means believe them.
Here is more from the article:
“The data is being analyzed with the purpose of identifying the “swing highs” and “swing lows” that are causing the trend. That is, what is going on behind the apparent trend lines. “It is not an exact science,” says Dr. Mark Smeijer, an economist at the Center for Economic Growth in Kansas City, Kan., who was not involved in the research. “However, in general the big things that come through are the swings in stock prices, and then the larger things, in real estate, or whatever, come through and are larger and are the most important things happening. These are the things to pay special attention to.”
Smeijer is the author of several articles published on the website of the Kansas City-based economist Robert Reich and one of the primary economic bloggers on the left side of the political spectrum.
The most popular thing about Smeijer’s website is the swing-high (SHS) chart, but here is another view with more details about the trends:
Here is a sample of Smeijer’s articles (click for a larger image):
The chart on the left is the SHS chart, showing the price level versus time for all of the stocks in the S&P 500. The chart on the right is the trend indicator. Smeijer says: “While these charts are not perfect, they give you a very good visual of how many of the different stocks are currently in positive, or in a positive, direction. They can look something like this:
But when looking at individual stocks one’s eye is probably drawn to the trend line — the SHS line — that can be very misleading. That is also where you see the error in the charts.”
He says the biggest problem with all stock investors is that most don’t pay attention to the longer-term trends of the market. “There is the illusion of understanding the market when you don’t pay attention to
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