We use the same data for all these data sets. The only difference is that we do not choose what to use to make these trades, which is what you, the audience of your site, should decide. We choose instead to use swing highs and swing lows. Swing highs are more likely to trade higher than swing lows, as long as you are in the same timeframe. Swing lows are just as likely to trade lower as higher.
In our study we looked at over 50 swings in this trading segment, and we could only find 11 winners (3 for each group). All 11 winners made more than they lost.
The swing heights, however, were always on the higher end of the spectrum. Of 51 winners in our sample, 28 were swings for higher highs, and 22 trades for lower highs. A swing could be high or low, and there was usually an even spread.
We do not believe that investors should use swing highs and swing lows to make a decision. Rather, we prefer, for our readers, to use them to find new trading opportunities.
What if my swing is high and you have a swing for lower highs?
You will want to look at your swing for higher highs, and not just swing for lower highs. If your swing is for higher highs, then you are unlikely to be able to trade those high swings and they won’t be profitable.
In this sample we looked at 52 swings, with 14 more trades making high swings. In the other group of trades, none made high swings. Most often, our low is trading on the same date as the high. The trade is a loss of money. However, investors might trade on Friday evenings, or even Monday nights, and this makes these transactions “clean.”
When the same person is trading more than one day ago, we will likely see a low or high swing for each day. This is a big problem, because when investors don’t make swings, they are less likely to make profit. On Sunday evening, when the same trader is trading higher swings the next day, the investor could be trading losses. Since our investor is less likely to lose than her opponent, the investor is more likely to not be able to make a profit on the day.
The lesson for investors is that swing low and high must be calculated carefully to be successful because, unless you take the time to make a good trade on the same trade day as your swing, you are better off making a trade on Saturday or Sunday
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