The best indicator to go with is the MACD. The MACD determines the level at which the market has a high or low risk of falling to a certain level. We have it at 4 for today and it has been above 4 for most of the time and it continues to do so. It is a good indicator, but only if you are willing to deal with a very low level of risk. If you buy the stock, try not to sell at low prices.
We are in such a bull market right now that even with low prices you can sell the stock for more than what you paid for it. The best way to deal with a low level of risk is to invest in some very low-risk, low-risk stocks for the sake of the market and to profit from the trend.
What are the biggest risks to investing?
The biggest risk of all is the stock market. There are risks to everything, from stocks to stocks, and the only ones that really stick out to me are high-risk bonds.
That being said, if I were to do a thesis today, I would say that the biggest risks today is high interest rates, which are going to rise dramatically. We cannot afford to lose a single percentage point in our bond exposure. If rates go up a big amount, I think that will help a lot, but the big risk at the moment is the idea of what is going to happen in China.
China currently has high rates. And they have not increased as fast as they could have done. If they are going to get more aggressive, I don’t think they would do the kind of devaluation that the Fed did last time. They would probably just use the fiscal stimulus to keep the deficit very low, while they wait to see how their exports grow.
However, they still have some debt there. And they will be under pressure once their government makes more fiscal expenditures and that is going to make for higher interest rates. That is going to mean a lot of pressure on the Chinese economy.
Finally, my take on other risks are less clear going forward, because the stock market is so low. I don’t think it is overshooting its value right now because it is going to be much lower. I think there has been some short sell-off today because we have seen the market rally to new highs.
Are you a bear?
Yeah, I would say I am a bearish. I’m not looking
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