There are three types of bets:
Predictions: These bets take actual results and use historical data to predict a winner. Examples of this include predicting the score of a game via the score line, winning with an over/under, or predicting a winner in the Super Bowl.
Examples of this include predicting the score of a game via the score line, winning with an over/under, or predicting a winner in the Super Bowl. Predictions: These bets take prediction probabilities and use that information to predict a winner. Examples of this are predicting the number of points scored in a soccer match, and the number of points that any number of players can score.
Examples of this are predicting the number of points scored in a soccer match, and the number of points that any number of players can score. Pitches/Falls: These bets take probability and add the total number of points that have fallen as a result of a pitch. For example, someone might bet on each team scoring 10 or 15 points total.
In order to maximize results for each specific type of bet, you will need to determine how the odds of the outcome change over the time-frame you’re using.
Predicting a winner
How can I bet on a team that I know is expected to win?
To determine a favorite, we’ll use historical information to assess when a team’s record would give them an edge. For example:
If a team had played the following schedule, they’d win 48–42.
If a team’s record wasn’t so good to begin with, they’d lose 48–42.
These are the winning probabilities we’ll use in our calculation.
In this example, the favorite to win would be Minnesota and the underdog is the New Orleans Saints. The actual record makes that too close to call. So how can we tell if we want to bet on a Minnesota or New Orleans favorite?
If we were to use the actual results from Minnesota’s games, as well as the last few weeks, we’d have Minnesota with a 2.35 percent chance of winning. As Minnesota beat New Orleans in both games this past week, we’re now 1.35 percent closer than we would have been had Minnesota not played so well recently. And, while we wouldn’t be overly surprised if Minnesota ended up having a better record, as a two-loss team, they’re very unlikely to have the better record in each of the next two
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